In honor of the preponderance of annoying and hyperbolic pre-game shows for college and pro football, here's my pre-race prediction for the Thanksgiving Day Race this Thursday:
Last year, coming off (well, 6 weeks off) of the Chicago Marathon and all of the mileage and workouts that come with it, I ran a 30:40 and finished in 2nd place. This year, I have not done marathon mileage and have had a bit of an erratic and disappointing training span. I've had some Achilles issues and a sprained ankle that have hampered my training plan to get up a good consistent training base.
That said, though, I'm cautiously optimistic going into the race. Even without putting in big weekly mileage, I feel I have a good aerobic base. Plus, I think the workouts I've done (the few, anyway...) are a good indicator of my level of fitness. Here me out:
The one staple workout that I've done twice is a 5.75-mile tempo run, on a decently hilly loop (at least comparable to the race course). The first time I did it, I finished in 30:00. The next time, about a month later, I finished in 29:30.
Therefore, I feel a reasonable expectation is to run about a 31:00 10k. Pretty comparable to last year.
See, I know I can run 5.75 miles in at least 29:30. Adding on slightly less than one half mile (.45, to be exacterish) is about 2 minutes. So, at tempo pace, that's a finishing time of 31:30.
However, on race day there are plenty more factors to add in: competition, another few weeks of increased fitness, the benefits of rest and a brief taper, adrenaline, and specific mental preparation, to name a few.
Adding up everything that makes a race a race and not a workout is, I feel, enough to close that 30-second gap between my tempo-workout-translated time and my own prediction.
So that's why I'm predicting the time that I am. Now, as for my place, I can't predict a win, so we'll just have to see what the day has in store...
Last year, coming off (well, 6 weeks off) of the Chicago Marathon and all of the mileage and workouts that come with it, I ran a 30:40 and finished in 2nd place. This year, I have not done marathon mileage and have had a bit of an erratic and disappointing training span. I've had some Achilles issues and a sprained ankle that have hampered my training plan to get up a good consistent training base.
That said, though, I'm cautiously optimistic going into the race. Even without putting in big weekly mileage, I feel I have a good aerobic base. Plus, I think the workouts I've done (the few, anyway...) are a good indicator of my level of fitness. Here me out:
The one staple workout that I've done twice is a 5.75-mile tempo run, on a decently hilly loop (at least comparable to the race course). The first time I did it, I finished in 30:00. The next time, about a month later, I finished in 29:30.
Therefore, I feel a reasonable expectation is to run about a 31:00 10k. Pretty comparable to last year.
See, I know I can run 5.75 miles in at least 29:30. Adding on slightly less than one half mile (.45, to be exacterish) is about 2 minutes. So, at tempo pace, that's a finishing time of 31:30.
However, on race day there are plenty more factors to add in: competition, another few weeks of increased fitness, the benefits of rest and a brief taper, adrenaline, and specific mental preparation, to name a few.
Adding up everything that makes a race a race and not a workout is, I feel, enough to close that 30-second gap between my tempo-workout-translated time and my own prediction.
So that's why I'm predicting the time that I am. Now, as for my place, I can't predict a win, so we'll just have to see what the day has in store...
Comments
Post a Comment