2:02:57.
It's official: the marathon has been figured out.
The marathon has always had an element of mystique about it: super fast speeds for super far distance. No one really knew how to race it, and even fewer people truly understood how to train for it.
In case you hadn't heard, Dennis Kimetto broke the former world record of 2:03:23 in Berlin this weekend, running the above-mentioned time. Oh yeah, and the second-place finisher, Emmanuel Mutai, also ran under the old record time, finishing in 2:03:13.
How ridiculous has the marathon become in the past 5 years? Here are some stats:
2:02:57 is 4:41 pace per mile and 14:34 pace per 5k. My road 5k PR is 14:33. One of his 5k splits was 14:09, faster than I've ever run a 5k (I ran 14:13 on the track once in college).
The second place finisher (2:03:13) also broke the previous world record. Talk about bittersweet: you just ran a world record!...But you finished second, so it doesn't actually count.
Kimetto has the fastest debut marathon in history (2:04:16) and also the course record in Chicago (2:03:45). Oh yeah, and he's only been racing since 2011. Seriously. He was a farmer who only started real marathon training three years ago. And how he's the fastest human ever.
The men's marathon world record has been lowered at five of the last eight Berlin Marathons.
Ethiopian legend Kenenisa Bekele has stated that he is (or, at least, was) gunning for the world record in Chicago this year. Kimetto may have beaten him to it. In this context, the Chicago Marathon (which is in about 10 days!) will be an incredibly exciting race.
What's behind this marathon renaissance?
TRAINING. Kenyan and Ethiopian groups (and their coaches) have figured out how to train for the marathon. Three of the fastest marathoners in history (Kimetto, Geoffrey Mutai, and former WR holder Wilson Kipsang) train together...imagine if, in America, Ryan Hall, Meb Keflezighi, and Dathan Ritzenhein all trained together! Not only that, but the Kenyans train in notoriously large groups, with sometimes 100+ aspiring athletes. With such a dense training environment, it's not wonder some of the best in the world rise to the top. Americans still train solo or in small groups. And that's not even mentioning the type of training these African runners are doing. Regular long hard runs are near marathon pace are a staple of their program. These runs are incredibly taxing, and most people in the group can't complete them (most of the Kenyans burn out in only a few years, unable to sustain the high intensity of training). But with such aggressive training in such large groups, developing runners are no longer afraid of the marathon. When you're putting forth a near-marathon effort on a weekly basis, race day becomes just another day. Conversely, Americans still hold a respectful reverence of the marathon, which belies a fear of the distance. Add that to the fact that we're still plodding away at 7:00 pace long runs (with maybe some marathon-pace variation thrown in), and it's no wonder we're being left behind. American training -- both practice and mentality -- is about a decade behind the Africans, and so are our times.
MONEY. The past decade has seen a surge in prize money among road races, most notably in the major marathons. In terms of prize money, Kimetto won 50,000 euros for finishing first, 30,000 for running under 2:04, and another 50,000 for setting a new World Record. That comes out to over $150,000. (And Chicago and New York and Boston pay even better than Berlin...they're like real professional sports!) His win in Berlin also vaults him to the lead in the World Marathon Majors standings, which would award him another $500,000. With this one race, Kimetto stands to make over $650,000 in prize money alone, not to mention all the appearance fees his fame will bring him. Not bad for a former subsistence farmer. On the track, however, prize money exists only in the tens of thousands of dollars...that's if you win the entire season standing in the Diamond League (track and field's most prestigious series). If you don't win, you're looking at money in the four-figures range. With a much more lucrative potential, it's no wonder that road racing is becoming more competitive. Spurred on by increased prize money, a lot of young talent is skipping the track altogether and going straight to the roads.
DOPING. An interesting thing is happening in the world of distance running: as track times have relatively stalled, marathon road race times have plummeted. For example, the 5000m WR is 12:37 (and 10 years old), but times around 13:00 consistently won Diamond League races this year. Certainly part of the reason for this could be the increased money as an incentive to race on the road instead of the track, but at the very least doping has to be part of the conversation. The World Anti-Doping Agency's Biological Passport has been been very effective at limiting drug cheats on the track (and is definitely one of the reasons behind the stagnating track times); however, some of those drugs may have taken to the roads. Most drug testing occurs during in-competition tests...so an athlete may be tested after each competition, which, during a track season, may be every week. It can be hard to hide drug use with such regular testing. Marathoners, however, typically race sparingly, instead choosing to train for months at a time leading up to one ultimate race. Depending on the rigor of their country's out-of-competition drug testing, a runner may never be tested. I'm not accusing anyone of doping, I'm just saying that it has to be part of the conversation, especially as the WR has fallen seemingly every year.
So what about sub-2:00:00?
Not anytime soon.
Sorry.
Just do a quick Google search, and you'll see all the buzz about a sub-2 hour marathon. It's the new sub-4:00 mile. And while it will probably definitely almost for sure happen someday, I doubt it will be any day in the near future.
I'm not any kind of math whizz, but check out the WR progression. At 2:02:57, there are still 3 minutes to go to hit the sub-2 barrier. To get to this point from three minutes above it (around 2:06) has taken 16 years (when the record was set at 2:06:05 in 1998). So if times fall in a linear fashion (which they don't...as time get faster, they are typically increased by lesser and lesser margins), it would be at least another 16 years until we see sub-2. So mark your calendar for 2030.
In all likelihood it'll probably be later than that. Here's an interesting article that talks about it more intelligently than me.
While sub-2 will certainly be a Bannister moment when it happens, don't hold your breath. Instead, revel in witnessing the current Golden Age of the marathon.
It's official: the marathon has been figured out.
The marathon has always had an element of mystique about it: super fast speeds for super far distance. No one really knew how to race it, and even fewer people truly understood how to train for it.
In case you hadn't heard, Dennis Kimetto broke the former world record of 2:03:23 in Berlin this weekend, running the above-mentioned time. Oh yeah, and the second-place finisher, Emmanuel Mutai, also ran under the old record time, finishing in 2:03:13.
How ridiculous has the marathon become in the past 5 years? Here are some stats:
2:02:57 is 4:41 pace per mile and 14:34 pace per 5k. My road 5k PR is 14:33. One of his 5k splits was 14:09, faster than I've ever run a 5k (I ran 14:13 on the track once in college).
The second place finisher (2:03:13) also broke the previous world record. Talk about bittersweet: you just ran a world record!...But you finished second, so it doesn't actually count.
Kimetto has the fastest debut marathon in history (2:04:16) and also the course record in Chicago (2:03:45). Oh yeah, and he's only been racing since 2011. Seriously. He was a farmer who only started real marathon training three years ago. And how he's the fastest human ever.
The men's marathon world record has been lowered at five of the last eight Berlin Marathons.
Ethiopian legend Kenenisa Bekele has stated that he is (or, at least, was) gunning for the world record in Chicago this year. Kimetto may have beaten him to it. In this context, the Chicago Marathon (which is in about 10 days!) will be an incredibly exciting race.
What's behind this marathon renaissance?
TRAINING. Kenyan and Ethiopian groups (and their coaches) have figured out how to train for the marathon. Three of the fastest marathoners in history (Kimetto, Geoffrey Mutai, and former WR holder Wilson Kipsang) train together...imagine if, in America, Ryan Hall, Meb Keflezighi, and Dathan Ritzenhein all trained together! Not only that, but the Kenyans train in notoriously large groups, with sometimes 100+ aspiring athletes. With such a dense training environment, it's not wonder some of the best in the world rise to the top. Americans still train solo or in small groups. And that's not even mentioning the type of training these African runners are doing. Regular long hard runs are near marathon pace are a staple of their program. These runs are incredibly taxing, and most people in the group can't complete them (most of the Kenyans burn out in only a few years, unable to sustain the high intensity of training). But with such aggressive training in such large groups, developing runners are no longer afraid of the marathon. When you're putting forth a near-marathon effort on a weekly basis, race day becomes just another day. Conversely, Americans still hold a respectful reverence of the marathon, which belies a fear of the distance. Add that to the fact that we're still plodding away at 7:00 pace long runs (with maybe some marathon-pace variation thrown in), and it's no wonder we're being left behind. American training -- both practice and mentality -- is about a decade behind the Africans, and so are our times.
MONEY. The past decade has seen a surge in prize money among road races, most notably in the major marathons. In terms of prize money, Kimetto won 50,000 euros for finishing first, 30,000 for running under 2:04, and another 50,000 for setting a new World Record. That comes out to over $150,000. (And Chicago and New York and Boston pay even better than Berlin...they're like real professional sports!) His win in Berlin also vaults him to the lead in the World Marathon Majors standings, which would award him another $500,000. With this one race, Kimetto stands to make over $650,000 in prize money alone, not to mention all the appearance fees his fame will bring him. Not bad for a former subsistence farmer. On the track, however, prize money exists only in the tens of thousands of dollars...that's if you win the entire season standing in the Diamond League (track and field's most prestigious series). If you don't win, you're looking at money in the four-figures range. With a much more lucrative potential, it's no wonder that road racing is becoming more competitive. Spurred on by increased prize money, a lot of young talent is skipping the track altogether and going straight to the roads.
DOPING. An interesting thing is happening in the world of distance running: as track times have relatively stalled, marathon road race times have plummeted. For example, the 5000m WR is 12:37 (and 10 years old), but times around 13:00 consistently won Diamond League races this year. Certainly part of the reason for this could be the increased money as an incentive to race on the road instead of the track, but at the very least doping has to be part of the conversation. The World Anti-Doping Agency's Biological Passport has been been very effective at limiting drug cheats on the track (and is definitely one of the reasons behind the stagnating track times); however, some of those drugs may have taken to the roads. Most drug testing occurs during in-competition tests...so an athlete may be tested after each competition, which, during a track season, may be every week. It can be hard to hide drug use with such regular testing. Marathoners, however, typically race sparingly, instead choosing to train for months at a time leading up to one ultimate race. Depending on the rigor of their country's out-of-competition drug testing, a runner may never be tested. I'm not accusing anyone of doping, I'm just saying that it has to be part of the conversation, especially as the WR has fallen seemingly every year.
So what about sub-2:00:00?
Not anytime soon.
Sorry.
Just do a quick Google search, and you'll see all the buzz about a sub-2 hour marathon. It's the new sub-4:00 mile. And while it will probably definitely almost for sure happen someday, I doubt it will be any day in the near future.
I'm not any kind of math whizz, but check out the WR progression. At 2:02:57, there are still 3 minutes to go to hit the sub-2 barrier. To get to this point from three minutes above it (around 2:06) has taken 16 years (when the record was set at 2:06:05 in 1998). So if times fall in a linear fashion (which they don't...as time get faster, they are typically increased by lesser and lesser margins), it would be at least another 16 years until we see sub-2. So mark your calendar for 2030.
In all likelihood it'll probably be later than that. Here's an interesting article that talks about it more intelligently than me.
While sub-2 will certainly be a Bannister moment when it happens, don't hold your breath. Instead, revel in witnessing the current Golden Age of the marathon.
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